June 4 was an important day in Indian political history when the results of the 18th Lok Sabha were declared. On one hand, this day was going to bring BJP to the ground and blow up Congress and its allies; while on the other hand, it would prove to be vindication of my personal analysis. While the exit polls running on news channels across the country were showing a figure of 400 for the BJP-led NDA, I had put forward a figure of 294 based on the analysis of the last few months. Ultimately BJP (NDA) was in a position to form the government with 292 seats. However, the results of 2024 Lok Sabha were also a shock, especially for BJP, because the party, which single-handedly won an absolute majority by winning 303 seats in 2019, was reduced to 240 seats with a loss of 63 seats in five years, despite the so-called historic works. One of the main reasons for this was the loss of one percent in vote share. But now the question is, what were the main reasons for this decrease in the number of seats and votes? I believe that the overconfidence of BJP and Narendra Modi did not allow the voters to reach the polling stations. Secondly, the fear of ED-CBI, which even a paan shop owner was understanding through social media memes. Third and most important is the politics of horse trading.
Overconfidence directly means the slogan of crossing 400. Instead of converting voters into trust, this slogan did not succeed in driving them out of their homes. The mistake of belittling the opposition and repeating Hindu-Muslim politics in the rallies not only scattered the voters but also made them indifferent towards voting. The decline in BJP’s vote percentage shows that Hindu voters supporting Modi or BJP either did not bother to reach the polling stations or pressed the EVM button for some other party.
Secondly, everyone from big industrialists to grocery shop owners started understanding the ED-CBI affair in the wrong way. If you are with the government then it is fine, otherwise the narrative of being ready to go in also proved to be harmful for BJP. The opposition made these issues so big through social media that BJP failed to assess its length and depth and had to bear the brunt from voters ranging from lower middle class to upper class. Third and most important was the politics of horse-trading which angered the general public. For example, Indore became an example where, despite almost every possibility of the BJP candidate winning, the Congress candidate was included in the BJP on the day of withdrawal of nominations. This news made waves across the country and almost everyone called this move of the party wrong. However, not only the issue of switching from Congress to BJP remained in the news, but giving tickets to candidates from BSP, SP and sidelining their own leaders also proved to be a backfire on BJP.